I hope that by this time next year, Apache Pivot will be on the graph with a steeply upward sloping trend line.

Looks like it's a terminology thing - http://www.simplyhired.com/a/jobtrends/trend/q-actionscript%2C+silverlight%2C+gwt%2C+javafx

I don't see legs with the current incarnation of Flex because it's so heavy and all inclusive, and that's what your chart might represent, but pure actionscript is still huge. What I do see is a lot of good shops, including my own, making their own Flex substitute frameworks in pure AS3.

Tom,

Interesting comment. Your query is also interesting, because it says that all job ads that mention ActionScript have fallen off about 25% since February, while Silverlight job ads have remained ata about the same frequency. Once might read into the query results that the entire Flash Platform is losing ground, not just Flex.

Of course, there are lies, damn lies, and statistics ;)

Not accurate---in terms of worldwide demand. Here, Silverlight is unheard of. I live in a country where people hired by US and European countries to do RIAs for economic reasons. The situation here accurately reflects the demand in the US and Europe. YOU WON'T GET A JOb WITH SILVERLIGHT. HOW CAN IT BE IN DEMAND WHEN LESS AND LESS COMPANIES ARE USING IT BECAUSE A LOT OF PEOPLE DO NOT INSTALL SILVERLIGHT ON THEIR COMPUTER. THUS, THEY LOSE CLIENTS. In the last 6 months of observing classified job ads, there was only one instance that Silverlight was required, but it was bundled with FLEX skills and other programming know-how.

Mike, I don't think you've shown that there is any relationship between the curves and therefore I don't see any evidence in the job ads that "Microsoft is eating Adobe's lunch." I recommend that before you try to tie the two curves together you attempt to put the curves in the wider context of the economy at large. Here's a search for Java and C# which might help illustrate that a little:

http://www.simplyhired.com/a/jobtrends/trend/q-silverlight,+java,+c%23,+flex

Notice that adds for Java dwarf Silverlight and Flex and fall significantly in February, so it is much more likely that the fall-off you see for Flex is an industry-wide event and may have nothing to do with Silverlight. The quick uptick you see for Silverlight at the beginning of 09 may be significant or it may not be. Only time will really tell.

Finally, when I visited the search link that I've posted above it appears Flex adds were actually growing in February and that Silverlight adds are relatively flat. That's very different from both your graphs. So I think a great deal of caution is required before using job queries to acuse anyone of eating someone else's lunch.

-Brian

Should Flex (which is a framework) really be compared to Silverlight (which is a platform)? And does replacing "Flex" with "ActionScript" really redeem that?

No, I think that it's really hard to make a fair comparison, but if one was to try, it should be "Flash" that is put up against "Silverlight" et al. Now, that gives a very different curve:
http://www.simplyhired.com/a/jobtrends/trend/q-flash%2C+silverlight%2C+gwt%2C+javafx

As a final note, I think this trend is very limited to the USA, whereas in Europe, Silverlight is not very wide-spread.

Cheers
/R

Just realised that the first graph compares "adobe flex" to "silverlight" so just for fun here's "adobe flex" compared to "microsoft silverlight"

http://www.indeed.com/jobtrends?q="adobe+flex",+"microsoft+silverlight",+javafx,+gwt&l=

Paints a very different picture doesn't it!

Or you can leave off both company names:

http://www.indeed.com/jobtrends?q=flex,+silverlight,+javafx,+gwt&l=

@Richard - I considered substituting Flash for ActionScript when I re-ran Mike's query, but Flash is too broad of a term. It would also consist of design and animation positions, whereas ActionScript is very clearly for pure development positions which is what I would imagine Silverlight positions are. Since AS3 was released I would say there aren't really many Flash developers any more (or if there are, they are using AS2) but instead there are AS3 developers, or maybe I'm way off with that one.

This is wrong.

Most of the companies DON'T write Adobe Flex, but Flex.

If you rename "Adobe Flex" to Flex you will see a subtle difference.

Or you can rename SIlverlight to "Microsoft Silverlight" and see how SL results goes down too. Same with "Sun JavaFX", or "Google GWT".

I think the most reliable results would be between "Adobe Flex", "Microsoft Silverlight", etc. and oh no, results are quite different :-)

Oh well...

yes,the things about silverlight is totally false, in my country , no company hires the silverlight programmers, i never saw internet adds or newspaper adds that hire silverlight programmers,because , there were very very few computers with silverlight installed , no company would like to invest and develop silverlight programs.....

silverLight is not bad ,but in Japan, China, and Korea, so few companys would like to develop silverlight program , it's high risk!!!

+1 about Silverlight in Belgium I think:
Never seen a company hiring silverlight programmers, while I do read job openings from time to time.

And at least compare "adobe Flex" with "microsoft silverlight" or "Flex" with "Silverlight" if you want to stay somewhat neutral.

Why would companies prefer Silverlight above Flex anyways? That would be much more interesting.

"Of course, there are lies, damn lies, and statistics ;)"

I totally agree! :)

Greets

@Jochen - "Why would companies prefer Silverlight above Flex anyways? That would be much more interesting."

Mainly just to take advantage of existing knowledge of .net languages and because Silverlight supports byte range requests where Flash doesn't.

I think you graph is little not accurate. Flex is too much focused on platform. Flex is a part of Flash framework. So you should double check this also.

http://www.simplyhired.com/a/jobtrends/trend/q-flash%2C+silverlight%2C+gwt%2C+javafx

And here's another trend graph

http://www.indeed.com/jobtrends?q=flash%2C+actionscript%2C+silverlight%2C+objective-c&l=

Thanks for your research.

It's tough drawing any far-reaching parallels, there are just too many things at stake. The folks at Microsoft have really stepped up their Silverlight campaigning as of late, broadening the areas of its integration and prompting you to install Silverlight in order to "have a better web experience" every now and then. Simultaneously, Adobe seem to be placing more emphasis on Flash - so the Flash to Silverlight comparison might be valid, although there definitely are some offtopic connotation that come into play. ActionScript? Not the whole story embraced, imo.

should'nt you compare "adobe Flex" to "Microsoft Silverlight"?

see the post here, which was written last week: http://flexonjava.blogspot.com/2009/07/is-silverlight-catching-up-with-flex.html

MANAGER: We're hiring a new programmer, what skills should I put in the ad?

PROGRAMMER: VB.Net, SQL Server, oh... and "Silverlight".

MANAGER: Silverlight?!?? What the &%$# is "Silverlight"?

PROGRAMMER: It's some new thing from Microsoft, apparently. To do with the rich cloud web, or something!

MANAGER: Do you think we'll ever use it here?

PROGRAMMER: Dunno, but I saw someone on Twitter say Silverlight is the future... so...

MANAGER: Oh, right, I see! Well, we want people with up-to-date skills I guess... so we'd better include "Silverlight" in the ad...!

(And the moral of the story is: unless it's implied by the actual job title, don't assume a listed technology is actually a required skill!)

Hehe!

Like above people said, it is "query" issue for search engine. I love both sites to check current job or tech trend. I hope those links are helpful for accurate research.

http://www.indeed.com/jobtrends?q=adobe+flex%2Cmicrosoft+silverlight%2C+adobe+flash&l=

http://www.simplyhired.com/a/jobtrends/trend/q-adobe+flash%2Cadobe+flex%2Cmicrosoft+silverlight%2C+sun+javafx

http://www.google.com/trends?q=adobe+flash%2Cadobe+flex%2Cmicrosoft+silverlight%2C+sun+javafx&ctab=0&geo=all&date=ytd&sort=0

Thanks for your read.

"JavaFX has clearly not made much impact to this point."

We have to keep in mind that JavaFX is relatively new, in that sense Javafx jobs increased 649% http://ito.com.mx/trendjfx

I think the flash player will win over Silverlight. And FLEX is my choice for RIAs - Silverlight seems okay but when I started dabble with the API I found it hard - I don't like XAML - who does like XAML? . What's up with storyboards anyway? But C# is nice language anyway actually better than actionscript 3 - but they're pretty similar so...

The downside I think with the programming model with Flex 3 is that it's becoming too simple - almost retarded with all this mxml shit. Like this you have this curly braces in a attribute in a tag for binding data. I think you should at least make functions and classes for data-binding code. Too much inline shit will be maintenance nightmare. Look what Javascript, HTML and CSS has gone? Say no to inline shit!
But FLEX 3 is so cool it feels almost like coding javascript and html - makes me dance a happy song!

@Luke

MXML is not simple, but its usage might be for simple tasks or much advanced. It's superior (in Flex 4) to describe complex designs, but you can use it just to drop couple of components. it's just another way to present the view (UI). XAML is absolutely the same. Both supports tags to describe vector graphics, styles, effects and animations.

Two-way data binding is essential and some Ajax frameworks support or strive to support data binding too.

Of course you can write absolutely everything in MXML through AS3 classes but using tag-based ones are superior for views say from MVC.

So in a very generic statement MXML and XAML execute similar goals and duties.

Sure MXML and XAML has similar goals but the implementation may vary and those little details make why a developer chooses one thing over another. I think a combination of tags and code are optimal for speed and clarity, like in javascript and html. How tedious wouldn't it be to build a complete HTML page in all but nothing javascript?

javafx is not so redy to compete adobe flex and silverlight. but i hope its future is bright. it has a different type of concept for developing potable application.

The graph above is manipulated to minimise filtered results from Flex. There are actually MANY more Flex jobs in the market place right now.

Type:
flex, silverlight, javafx, gw

into the search box at indeed.com and see what you get.

This is sad because Flex doesn't currently support the MV-VM design pattern which is architecturally superb.

However who hasn't noticed that Microsoft have basically ripped off the creativity of Adobe's ideas: The Silverlight idea came from Flash and XAML is remarkably like Flex's MXML, except after the fact.

It's been a long time since Microsoft have done anything creative.

Silverlight is a very immature product for visual presentation compared to Flash. I've seen Flash demos that would be impossible, or extremely time consuming, to pull off in Silverlight. Silverlight's biggest drawback is it's time based animation, rather than Flash's frame based animation. Working with layers, nested animations and onion skinning becomes a nightmare pretty soon in Silverlight.